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Case Study 18: Air Dispersion Modeling and Community Health Risk

Air Dispersion Modeling and Community Health Risk Assessment for Airborne Contaminants at Industrial Sterilization Facilities

RoseyFields conducted comprehensive environmental assessments of large-scale industrial operations, specifically focusing on commercial sterilization and medical device manufacturing facilities. Our team evaluated the historical release and atmospheric transport of toxic airborne contaminants, with a primary focus on ethylene oxide (EtO). We investigated decades of certified emissions data to quantify both fugitive and stack emissions, establishing a foundational understanding of the long-term chemical releases originating from these complex industrial sites.

To evaluate the inhalation exposure pathways and community impact, our team performed advanced air dispersion modeling and technical fate and transport analyses. We utilized regulatory-approved dispersion models integrated with facility-specific emission parameters, representative regional meteorological conditions, and detailed topographic terrain data. This rigorous environmental modeling allowed us to simulate the complex atmospheric transport of airborne chemicals and generate scientifically robust estimates of ground-level ambient concentrations. Building upon this modeling, we conducted comprehensive human health risk assessments, utilizing established risk equations and chemical-specific inhalation unit risks to calculate the excess exposure risks for surrounding populations.

Based on the results of our technical analyses, RoseyFields successfully identified and characterized the affected populations and potential exposure classes surrounding the sites. We evaluated the geographic scope of the impacted areas by mapping historical residential addresses against the modeled contaminant plumes to pinpoint specific exposure points. By overlaying continuous concentration gradients with individual exposure durations and historical residency data, our team was able to accurately delineate the boundaries of elevated risk zones. Because this methodology relies on a highly standardized and reproducible assessment framework, RoseyFields is uniquely positioned to assist clients with large quantities of demand letters when many different facilities of a similar nature need to be modeled and evaluated at scale.

This investigation was conducted under the direction of Dr. Paul Rosenfeld, an environmental scientist and environmental forensic expert with extensive experience in environmental exposure assessment, toxicology, air quality, environmental fate and transport, risk assessment, and environmental forensics. Through RoseyFields LLC, Dr. Rosenfeld provides scientific consulting, environmental forensic analysis, regulatory support, and expert witness services involving environmental contamination, human exposure, and public health. His technical oversight helped ensure that the methodologies, scientific interpretations, and conclusions presented in this case study are consistent with accepted scientific principles and current best practices.